Predictions of a Giraffe on Chennai Superkings making it a hat-trick of IPL Titles

If I keep sticking my neck out like this, it will become as elongated as a giraffe!

Anyways, here it goes for today's match, and CSK's chances of making it a hat-trick of IPL titles:1. My estimate of CSK's chances of beating Delhi Daredevils in today's match is 65%. (See Rationale A below)2. If Chennai do beat the daredevils from the national capital today, chances of them beating Kolkata in the final on the 27th is 60%. (See Rationale B below)
3. Therefore, combined probability of CSK winning the IPL title three times in a row = 0.65 x 0.60 = 0.39, or 39%.That does not make KKR's chances 61%!

If Chennai makes it today, KKR's chances of beating Chennai at the home ground of the roaring Lions would only be 40%.Thus, right now, KKR has a 1% edge over CSK for a tournament win. 
However, if CSK win today, their chances go to 60% versus 40% for KKR.Go Chennai! Give us more joy today!
Rationale A (CSK's 65% chances at Chennai today)a. DD's batting is still top-heavy, and not very suited for the slow Chennai track (unless the track changes character suddenly a la Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde).b. DD's bowling attack is also highly pace oriented, with Morne Morkel, Umesh Yada & Varun Aaron supported by Irfan Pathan. Sehwag stuck to this attack against Kolkata and paid the price. While he may not make the same mistake again, their spin department is not as strong as Chennai.c. Chennai's bowling attack is far more suited to their home pitch, though they have not mastered it this season. While a leg-spinner is lacking, Ashwin, supported by Raina as off-spinners and Jakati, supported by Jadeja as as left-arm spinners can really "turn" the pressure on.

d. The home team's batsmen are peaking at the right time, with Hussey and Badri in the team adding stability to a line-up of aggressive stroke players. Captain Cool's blazing form in the last match is a great sign.
e. CSK are great at dealing with pressure, thereby giving their fans pleasure! Especially in the play-offs, they are masters of mastering pressure. The fact that they restricted Delhi to 114 in the previous match here would certainly give them psychological advantage.
f. Chennai's performance in the play-offs has been truly intimidating to opponents. This cannot be brushed off.
g. As if the roaring lions don't have enough support already, there will be over 12,500 more fans seated for this match. Imagine the adrenaline rush Chennai will receive with so many more full-throated fans all whistling for the home team, acting as a truly strong 12th player against 11.

All this said, Sehwag and Warner, both big match players, are sheer dynamite who can blast the opposition in a matter of a few overs. The KEY batsman for Delhi will be Mahela Jayawardene. He will absolutely relish the Chennai surface, using his quicksilver footwork and use of the crease to possible dent the dominance of the Chennai tweakers. 
If Dhoni's men can get the dynamic Delhi opening duo and Jayawardene fairly cheaply, they will have a better than 65% chance of getting through to the finals!

Rationale B (CSK's 60% chances against KKR) if they win todaya. KKR will obviously be much tougher opposition in the finals -- they have a terrific bowling attack suited to the Chennai track (Narine, Abdulla, Shakib, Yusuf & Balaji, not to mention, Kallis and Rajat Bhatia).b. KKR's batting line-up starting with brave captain Gambhir and Kallis, is also far better suited to face Chennai's spinners.
c. KKR are VERY HUNGRY for victory, but this could go against them in a high-pressure match which an IPL final certainly is. Chennai's proven capability in soaking up pressure will be a big advantage.
d. As detailed in Rationale A, Chennai's bowling and batting still have an edge over KKR on their home ground. They know the pitch far better. If they reach the finals, they would already have played nine matches on this ground this year, compared to KKR's one.
e. The home crowd will be out with FULL SUPPORT for the roaring lions, and this can be quite intimidating for the opposition.
f. Chennai's record in the IPL so far, especially in the play-offs, is also very intimidating to KKR.

Torrentially Tweeting on the Chennai Superkings v Mumbai Indians Eliminator match on 23rd May 2012.

When you are a die-hard supporter of any sporting team, your emotions swing like a pendulum depending on how well or badly your team is doing.
Here is a set of 35 original tweets and two retweets during the CSK - MI match from my handle, @fromkarthik:
It is interesting to look back at the range of emotions, though they did not swing too much:
Started with quiet confidence, it went to worry when Chennai lost two quick wickets, calmness as Badri & Hussey resurrected the innings, happiness as MSD started with a boundary and elation as the innings ended. When the MI innings started, it was quickly worry as Dwayne Smith took Hilfenhaus to the cleaners, wonder at Sachin's noble sacrifice, with happiness increasing with every Mumbai wicket going down!

I will be regularly tweeting tomorrow's match too. If you would like to follow, my Twitter tag is @fromkarthik.

Tweets before, during and after CSK's match against MI:
On the HEART and the MIND:The mind says Mumbai - 60:40. The heart says Chennai - 80:20 (20 for Sachin). Hoping breathlessly for the heart to win! #IPL #CSK
Before the match, on the trends till then:A hat-trick of +ve results to qualify for the playoffs.A hat-trick of wins needed starting today to win a hat-trick of IPL titles! #IPL

Before the match, on the mental make-up of the rival captains:Hoping icy steely Dhoni will win over fiery spicy Bhajji today. Encouraged by Mark Waugh's opinion: a cooler mind has better prospects! #IPL
On the fall of two quick wickets with just one run on the board:
Uh oh! Exactly the start we DID NOT NEED in a crunch match. Time for a rescue act! #CSK #IPL

On Badri's innings relieving the pressure of two early wickets:
Badri playing a REAL GEM here. Should have come in ahead of Raina as usual in a crisis. Hope things are turning around for #CSK! #IPL

Retweeting Karun Chandhok's (@karunchandhok) post on Chennai's recovery:come on #CSK #IPL !! decent recovery in the last couple overs.... more of the same please!

On the need to keep the foot on the accelerator:
With Bravo, Dhoni, Morkel & Jadeja to come, #CSK need to keep the foot firmly on the pedal. No brakes please. Go Chennai, go! #CSK

Hussey keeps the pressure on:... and Mr. Cricket is doing exactly that... foot firmly on the pedal - two boundaries in a row. Keep going, our roaring lions! @CSK #IPL

Badri departs for 47 trying a lofted shot after a terrific innings under great pressure:Another lion-hearted innings by Badri! Come on, fans, raise your hands and lets raise a loud chorus of ROARs for him please! #CSK #IPL

On Dhoni's hot start to his innings, hitting a boundary off the first ball he faced:Piping hot start by the icy cool captain. Looking real good after a real long time. Hope he continues taking MI apart! #CSK #IPL

Contrasting performance by the opposition captains:Captain Cool blowing really HOT and fiery Bhajji off the boil so far today. Ominous signs? #CSK #IPL

On Viswanathan Anand holding challenger Gelfand to a draw from a slightly tough position:COOL result for Chennai today! Our resident Anand holds with black against an aggressive Gelfand. Three matches to go, two with white! #IPL

Two overs of CSK’s innings left:Come on Lions! Time to ROAR proudly again. 30 in two overs would be great to set them over 9 an over... #CSK #IPL

On Bravo's fierce hitting:Bravo, brave Bravo! Bring us more like that, please! #IPL #CSK

On Dhoni's Helicopter shot:And there comes the Helicopter, helping #CSK fly! #IPL

Praise for the batting of Dhoni & Bravo:Great Caribe flair brave Bravo! Nice finish please, Captain Cool! #CSK #IPL

CSK's score is worth 210+ due to the pressure of the chase in a sudden death match:#CSK have enough. 187 in a pressure match, even on a batting beauty, is worth 210+ with 'sudden death' looming. Go Chennai, go! #IPL

Comment on the innings break on CSK's score:187 is 10% above par on the Bangalore track. Worth more in an eliminator. But its not over. #CSK will need some early wickets! #CSK #IPL

Retweeting Praveen's (@tweetpraveennow) comment mocking those who said CSK was here purely due to the Luck factor:So to all those out thr, if RCB hd bn 2/2 with Gayle and Kohli out, wud RCB have hit 187? No chance. Better think again b4 u say luck. #IPL

At the break between innings, the importance of the captain leading from the front:The captain's performance gives the team immense confidence. No doubts for guessing which captain did better. Go, #CSK, go! #IPL

Hilfenhaus being taken to the cleaners by a very aggressive Dwayne Smith:Rough start for Hilfenhaus. Wickets will be important for CSK. Come on, lions -- you can do it! #CSK #IPL

CSK get their first wicket through a mix-up between the openers:Now that's a start in the wickets column. The big man gone! A few more and we are firmly back in business. Go lions, go! #CSK #IPL

Saluting Sachin' sacrifice, giving up his wicket for a rampaging Smith:Great gesture from the great man! Selflessness that's so rare in this selfish, selfish world! Hats off to you, Sachin! #MI #IPL

Dwayne Smith flays one too many:Two down, eight to go! The dangerous Smith goes! Now if we can just get Rohit & Pollard cheaply. Go Lions, go! #CSK #IPL

Dhoni's cool nerves versus Bhajji's fiery nature:Icy steely Dhoni will win over fiery spicy Bhajji today. Mark Waugh: In a pressure match, a cooler mind will win. #CSK #IPL

Dinesh Karthik, my namesake, falls to Morkel:And then one more perished! Sorry about it, my namesake, but thanks nevertheless! The pressure is starting to take its toll! #CSK #IPL

With wickets falling, Chennai's chance to turn up the heat:A couple of quiet overs and the asking rate will go up like the price of petrol in India. Go #CSK, go! #IPL

One of the key dangermen gone, with Rohit succumbing to the pressure of a few dot balls:Rohit gone now! Get Pollard, and it will soon be done. The Lions are REALLY ROARING now, with Mumbai crumbing under pressure! #CSK #IPL

Five Mumbai wickets down with Rayudu falling to Ashwin:Cream of the batting gone now! The carrom ball induced the fear, and the next one did it! Can Pollard do it all alone? Think not! #CSK #IPL

With Franklin falling to Bravo, six Mumbai wickets down:Six down, four to go! Pollard the only one standing like the boy on the burning bridge -- between #CSK and victory! #IPL

Harbhajan hit on the helmet by a short ball:Wake up call for Bhajji -- not just in the physical sense! He's also rattled in more ways than one! #CSK #IPL

Seven Mumbai wickets down (Bhajji goes to a stunning catch by Raina):And then there were three! Pollard still the only one standing between the roaring lions and victory! #CSK #IPL

Four overs and one delivery left:
My calculation is MI need 15 boundary hits off 25 balls. A few dot balls or singles and it will all be over! #CSK #IPL

When Pollard was reprieved by a no-ball:
What a reprieve for Pollard! I thought the final nail was in the coffin! #CSK #IPL

With the asking rate at 21 with three overs left:
63 needed from 18 deliveries. 15 fours & a single of each delivery needed. Unless Pollard hits six sixes in a row. Possible? Nah! #CSK #IPL

When Pollard was done in by Bravo:
The final nail in the coffin is finally in! The fat lady is clearing her throat & will soon sing full-throatedly! Bye-bye, Mumbai! #CSK #IPL

Elation when the win came!:
Great show, CSK! One win down, two to go. Go on and take the cup for a hat-trick of titles! #CSK #IPL

Dangerously sticking my neck out in public!

OK, I'm sticking my neck out here...

What are Chennai's chances of winning the IPL this time to record a hat-trick of IPL titles?
Most important disclaimer: I am an unabashed and loyal CSK fan!
Next disclaimer: These are my rough calculations and I don't claim absolute accuracy.
Now that CSK are in the play-offs, its easy to say that it will be a cake-walk to the title. I wish life was so easy!

Here are the BEST CHANCES for each of the teams in the last 4. These are based on a careful analysis of all 14 paths to victory of all teams combined (CSK & MI two each, DD & KKR five each):

A. MUMBAI: Beat Chennai, Kolkata and Delhi that order
Probability = 60% (a) x 40% (b) x 55% (c) = 13.2%
Rationale? Here it is:

a. MI are in great form, match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
b. Chances of Mumbai beating KKR are less than 50% on a Chennai track. This track will dent Mumbai's big hitters while at the same time favouring Kolkata's slow bowlers including Narine, Shakib & Yusuf, not to mention Abdulla.
c. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.

B. CHENNAI: Beat Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata in that order
Probability = 40% (d) x 70% (e) x 65% (f) = 18.2%

Here's the rationale for this calculation:

d. MI are in great form, the match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
e. Delhi already crumbled once for 114 at Chennai, their pacemen will not be as effective on that pitch where Chennai's spinners will be dangerous and the home crowd will be firmly behind the defending champions.
f. KKR's bowlers, especially Narine will be very effective on the Chennai track, and Gambhir+Kallis will be very effective batsmen on this pitch. However, CSK know this track well, will have the fans firmly behind them and have better experience in the play-offs. The added factor is that this time around KKR will be considered favourites in the final and could freeze under pressure. Having come back from elimination right up to the final, Chennai will feel extremely confident. Hence Chennai's chances of a win against KKR in the final are calculated at 65%.

C. DELHI: Beat KKR today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 45% (g) x 45% (h) = 20.25%
g. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Sehwag & Warner, while being big match players, may not find this track to their liking. Hence KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
h. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.

D. KOLKATA: Beat Delhi today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 55% (i) x 60% (j) = 33.00%
i. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Now, they've scored 162! With Sehwag & Warner not finding this track to their liking, KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
j. KKR have a 60% chance of beating Mumbai in the finals at Chennai. While Mumbai has had success at that ground (against Chennai in IPL5 & in the Champions League last year), Kolkata's spin quartet plus Bhatia and Shukla in the bowling stakes and Gambhir & Kallis in the batting front would play a BIG role.

TO SUM UP, Kolkata has the BEST CHANCE of lifting the cup this year (since their team is excellently suited to Chennai's slow track), followed by Delhi who, by qualifying at #1 get a second chance. Chennai (excellent spin options + home advantage) are third, with Mumbai last.

That said, if CHENNAI gets their toughest match (against MI at Bengaluru) out of the way with a win tomorrow, a probability of their win increases dramatically from 18.2% to 45.5%, and if they beat Delhi in the 2nd match, their chances increase to 65% against Kolkata at at Chennai.

I fervently hope and pray that the dominos fall Chennai's way.

Still whistling, raising my hands and cheering Chennai on!

Do you DARE say Chennai SuperKings got into the play-offs JUST due to luck???

What was that again?

Did you just say that the Chennai Superkings got a semin-final berth based purely on luck?

Do you say that CSK qualified because of the "mercy" bestowed on them by other teams...

Do you dare say that CSK are "undeserving tenants" in the last four?
Well, here are some sobering FACTS for you!

1. The defending champions beat both #1 (DD) and #2 (KKR) at least once in their league matches. Even with the only team in the top 4 they did'nt beat (MI), they came within a boundary hit of a win (Dwayne Smith of MI scored 14 off the last 3 balls).
2. The lions in yellow had a far better NRR than RCB who were ultimately placed 5th. (For those who say a difference in NRR of 0.122 is small, please realize it is the equivalent of around 33 runs). If RCB was 2 points behind CSK, they would have had to beat DC by 36 runs to beat Dhoni's men on NRR, not an easy task in a 20-over match.
3. In some tournaments, if teams are tied on points, their "head to head" record in the League stage counts. If that rule applied, the Chennai men had one win against Mally's Challengers with the other game a No-Result. Even with that rule not applicable, didn't Dhoni's men beat Kohli's, albeit off the last ball?
4. Chennai also had the disadvantage of playing their last match well ahead of the others, meaning that of it came to NRR, Bengaluru would know exactly what to do to get through. Not fair, no?
5. The Chennai track "misbehaved wantonly", taking away most of the home advantage. You can say it was in CSK's hands as a home team to make the track behave, but do you know how hard that is?

I can go on and on and on... but I already have. I rest my case.

Any arguments?

Yes, Yes and Yes! Miracles DO happen!

Yes, Yes and YES! Miracles do happen, and fortune does favour the brave!

A hat-trick of favourable results for CSK, and we are now in the last four.

Can we now please have another hat-trick of wins in the next three matches to make it a hat-trick of IPL titles?

On current form, it looks like Mumbai have a good chance of beating us on the 23rd, but the classic sport dictum is that "Form is temporary, but class is permanent!".

Am definitely whistling for Chennai, raising my hands and cheering for the team.

Go CSK, go! Go on, play like the lions you are and make your loyal fans proud!

Delhi Daredevils beat the Kings XI! Keep the faith, CSK fans!

Keep the faith, CSK fans! Two results in our favour, one more to go!

Based on yesterday's showing by the Chargers, I'd say their chances of beating RCB are probably 10%.

If Steyn & Mishra who bowled brilliantly yesterday perform an encore, who knows? If they can get Gayle, Kohli & AB early, who knows, anything could happen.

Hope, however slim, still lives on for CSK!

Deccan upsets Rajasthan. CSK's chances increase!

There is good news, and there is bad news. Which do you want first?

The good?

OK, here it goes:

The good news: CSK's chances more than DOUBLED today with Deccan Chargers winning!

The bad news: My guess is that even with this increase, we go from a 1.4% chance to 3.5%

Here's how:
Chance of a DD victory over KXP = 70%, chance of a Deccan win over RCB = 5%
Combined probability = 0.7 x 0.05 = 0.035 or THREE and a HALF percent. Just slightly more than a 1 in 30 chance. 

Now if only DD can beat KXIP tomorrow, our chances go up to 5%!
Still a loyal Chennai fan for all that the team has done for us over several years!

Probability theory and all that!

We, the CSK fans are very depressed and down, but totally not out! Is there still hope?

This is surely a drowning man clutching at straws to keep afloat, but if RR, KXIP and RCB all lose a match apiece, CSK will still be through to the next stage. Probability? According to my rough calculations, <1.5%. YES -- Less than ONE point FIVE%!

Here's how I arrived at that rough figure:1. Probability of Delhi beating KXIP: 70% (Assuming they don't "rest" Sehwag, Morkel or other "big guns" again). DD don't want a losing streak of 2 games dampen confidence ahead of the Knockout stage! At the same time, KXIP will come at them hard, with everything to play for.

2. Probability of Rajasthan beating Mumbai beating Rajasthan: 40% (The match is at Jaipur, the Royals' fortress, but Mumbai will come hard because they don't want to finish 4th on the points table -- below Rajasthan if RCB win against Deccan).

3. Probability of Deccan Chargers beating RCB: A maximum of 5% (Bengaluru are in TOP FORM, and have everything to play for! For the Chargers, there is only pride, which seems to have counted for little for the team this year)

Revisiting my school math lessons, overall probability = 0.70 * 0.40 * 0.05 = 0.014 , or 1.4%
That's still better than ZERO, right?
Will that miracle happen? It could, but I'm not counting on it!

All that said, we just did not play well enough to deserve berth in the play-offs: 
a. We lost to Kings XI TWICE and Pune once.
b. We almost bungled three other chases, including an easy one against Rajasthan where we won off the last ball chasing a modest total.
c. Our bowling, as Dhoni himself admitted several times, was sub-standard in many matches. 
d. We left the charge for uncomfortably too late, not just in matches, but in the league stage itself! On form, and with the talent we had, we certainly under-performed, and are now facing the consequences.

While disappointed, I throughout use the word "We" since I REMAIN A STAUNCH CHENNAI SUPERKINGS SUPPORTER: The team brought us a lot of Joy in the past year, and our fielding was quite outstanding this year.

I'm sure we will have better news this time next year!

Our Conference on PMI Today!

PMI Chennai Chapter's 2-day state conference is prominently featured in the May 2012 issue of PMI Today that reaches close to 500,000 project managers worldwide.
It is a matter of great pride that the photograph featured in the article is the one of all the Chapter volunteers who played THE key role in a successful conference!