We, the CSK fans are very depressed and down, but totally not out! Is there still hope?
This is surely a drowning man clutching at straws to keep afloat, but if RR, KXIP and RCB all lose a match apiece, CSK will still be through to the next stage. Probability? According to my rough calculations, <1.5%. YES -- Less than ONE point FIVE%!
Here's how I arrived at that rough figure:1. Probability of Delhi beating KXIP: 70% (Assuming they don't "rest" Sehwag, Morkel or other "big guns" again). DD don't want a losing streak of 2 games dampen confidence ahead of the Knockout stage! At the same time, KXIP will come at them hard, with everything to play for.
2. Probability of Rajasthan beating Mumbai beating Rajasthan: 40% (The match is at Jaipur, the Royals' fortress, but Mumbai will come hard because they don't want to finish 4th on the points table -- below Rajasthan if RCB win against Deccan).
3. Probability of Deccan Chargers beating RCB: A maximum of 5% (Bengaluru are in TOP FORM, and have everything to play for! For the Chargers, there is only pride, which seems to have counted for little for the team this year)
Revisiting my school math lessons, overall probability = 0.70 * 0.40 * 0.05 = 0.014 , or 1.4%
That's still better than ZERO, right?
Will that miracle happen? It could, but I'm not counting on it!
All that said, we just did not play well enough to deserve berth in the play-offs:
a. We lost to Kings XI TWICE and Pune once.
b. We almost bungled three other chases, including an easy one against Rajasthan where we won off the last ball chasing a modest total.
c. Our bowling, as Dhoni himself admitted several times, was sub-standard in many matches.
d. We left the charge for uncomfortably too late, not just in matches, but in the league stage itself! On form, and with the talent we had, we certainly under-performed, and are now facing the consequences.
While disappointed, I throughout use the word "We" since I REMAIN A STAUNCH CHENNAI SUPERKINGS SUPPORTER: The team brought us a lot of Joy in the past year, and our fielding was quite outstanding this year.
I'm sure we will have better news this time next year!
This is surely a drowning man clutching at straws to keep afloat, but if RR, KXIP and RCB all lose a match apiece, CSK will still be through to the next stage. Probability? According to my rough calculations, <1.5%. YES -- Less than ONE point FIVE%!
Here's how I arrived at that rough figure:1. Probability of Delhi beating KXIP: 70% (Assuming they don't "rest" Sehwag, Morkel or other "big guns" again). DD don't want a losing streak of 2 games dampen confidence ahead of the Knockout stage! At the same time, KXIP will come at them hard, with everything to play for.
2. Probability of Rajasthan beating Mumbai beating Rajasthan: 40% (The match is at Jaipur, the Royals' fortress, but Mumbai will come hard because they don't want to finish 4th on the points table -- below Rajasthan if RCB win against Deccan).
3. Probability of Deccan Chargers beating RCB: A maximum of 5% (Bengaluru are in TOP FORM, and have everything to play for! For the Chargers, there is only pride, which seems to have counted for little for the team this year)
Revisiting my school math lessons, overall probability = 0.70 * 0.40 * 0.05 = 0.014 , or 1.4%
That's still better than ZERO, right?
Will that miracle happen? It could, but I'm not counting on it!
All that said, we just did not play well enough to deserve berth in the play-offs:
a. We lost to Kings XI TWICE and Pune once.
b. We almost bungled three other chases, including an easy one against Rajasthan where we won off the last ball chasing a modest total.
c. Our bowling, as Dhoni himself admitted several times, was sub-standard in many matches.
d. We left the charge for uncomfortably too late, not just in matches, but in the league stage itself! On form, and with the talent we had, we certainly under-performed, and are now facing the consequences.
While disappointed, I throughout use the word "We" since I REMAIN A STAUNCH CHENNAI SUPERKINGS SUPPORTER: The team brought us a lot of Joy in the past year, and our fielding was quite outstanding this year.
I'm sure we will have better news this time next year!
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