OK, I'm sticking my neck out here...
What are Chennai's chances of winning the IPL this time to record a hat-trick of IPL titles?
Most important disclaimer: I am an unabashed and loyal CSK fan!
Next disclaimer: These are my rough calculations and I don't claim absolute accuracy.
Now that CSK are in the play-offs, its easy to say that it will be a cake-walk to the title. I wish life was so easy!
Here are the BEST CHANCES for each of the teams in the last 4. These are based on a careful analysis of all 14 paths to victory of all teams combined (CSK & MI two each, DD & KKR five each):
A. MUMBAI: Beat Chennai, Kolkata and Delhi that order
Probability = 60% (a) x 40% (b) x 55% (c) = 13.2%
Rationale? Here it is:
a. MI are in great form, match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
b. Chances of Mumbai beating KKR are less than 50% on a Chennai track. This track will dent Mumbai's big hitters while at the same time favouring Kolkata's slow bowlers including Narine, Shakib & Yusuf, not to mention Abdulla.
c. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.
B. CHENNAI: Beat Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata in that order
Probability = 40% (d) x 70% (e) x 65% (f) = 18.2%
Here's the rationale for this calculation:
d. MI are in great form, the match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
e. Delhi already crumbled once for 114 at Chennai, their pacemen will not be as effective on that pitch where Chennai's spinners will be dangerous and the home crowd will be firmly behind the defending champions.
f. KKR's bowlers, especially Narine will be very effective on the Chennai track, and Gambhir+Kallis will be very effective batsmen on this pitch. However, CSK know this track well, will have the fans firmly behind them and have better experience in the play-offs. The added factor is that this time around KKR will be considered favourites in the final and could freeze under pressure. Having come back from elimination right up to the final, Chennai will feel extremely confident. Hence Chennai's chances of a win against KKR in the final are calculated at 65%.
C. DELHI: Beat KKR today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 45% (g) x 45% (h) = 20.25%
g. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Sehwag & Warner, while being big match players, may not find this track to their liking. Hence KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
h. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.
D. KOLKATA: Beat Delhi today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 55% (i) x 60% (j) = 33.00%
i. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Now, they've scored 162! With Sehwag & Warner not finding this track to their liking, KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
j. KKR have a 60% chance of beating Mumbai in the finals at Chennai. While Mumbai has had success at that ground (against Chennai in IPL5 & in the Champions League last year), Kolkata's spin quartet plus Bhatia and Shukla in the bowling stakes and Gambhir & Kallis in the batting front would play a BIG role.
TO SUM UP, Kolkata has the BEST CHANCE of lifting the cup this year (since their team is excellently suited to Chennai's slow track), followed by Delhi who, by qualifying at #1 get a second chance. Chennai (excellent spin options + home advantage) are third, with Mumbai last.
That said, if CHENNAI gets their toughest match (against MI at Bengaluru) out of the way with a win tomorrow, a probability of their win increases dramatically from 18.2% to 45.5%, and if they beat Delhi in the 2nd match, their chances increase to 65% against Kolkata at at Chennai.
I fervently hope and pray that the dominos fall Chennai's way.
Still whistling, raising my hands and cheering Chennai on!
What are Chennai's chances of winning the IPL this time to record a hat-trick of IPL titles?
Most important disclaimer: I am an unabashed and loyal CSK fan!
Next disclaimer: These are my rough calculations and I don't claim absolute accuracy.
Now that CSK are in the play-offs, its easy to say that it will be a cake-walk to the title. I wish life was so easy!
Here are the BEST CHANCES for each of the teams in the last 4. These are based on a careful analysis of all 14 paths to victory of all teams combined (CSK & MI two each, DD & KKR five each):
A. MUMBAI: Beat Chennai, Kolkata and Delhi that order
Probability = 60% (a) x 40% (b) x 55% (c) = 13.2%
Rationale? Here it is:
a. MI are in great form, match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
b. Chances of Mumbai beating KKR are less than 50% on a Chennai track. This track will dent Mumbai's big hitters while at the same time favouring Kolkata's slow bowlers including Narine, Shakib & Yusuf, not to mention Abdulla.
c. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.
B. CHENNAI: Beat Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata in that order
Probability = 40% (d) x 70% (e) x 65% (f) = 18.2%
Here's the rationale for this calculation:
d. MI are in great form, the match is at Bangalore where fans will support Mumbai for obvious reasons, and the faster pitch will suit MI's stroke players more than Chennai.
e. Delhi already crumbled once for 114 at Chennai, their pacemen will not be as effective on that pitch where Chennai's spinners will be dangerous and the home crowd will be firmly behind the defending champions.
f. KKR's bowlers, especially Narine will be very effective on the Chennai track, and Gambhir+Kallis will be very effective batsmen on this pitch. However, CSK know this track well, will have the fans firmly behind them and have better experience in the play-offs. The added factor is that this time around KKR will be considered favourites in the final and could freeze under pressure. Having come back from elimination right up to the final, Chennai will feel extremely confident. Hence Chennai's chances of a win against KKR in the final are calculated at 65%.
C. DELHI: Beat KKR today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 45% (g) x 45% (h) = 20.25%
g. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Sehwag & Warner, while being big match players, may not find this track to their liking. Hence KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
h. Chances of Mumbai beating Delhi at Chennai are better than 50%. Sehwag & Warner are big match players though the Chennai pitch may not exactly be to their liking! With MI having beaten Chennai there in IPL5 and having won the Champions League at this ground last year, they have the edge. Sachin also loves this ground.
D. KOLKATA: Beat Delhi today, hope to meet & beat MI in the final
Probability = 55% (i) x 60% (j) = 33.00%
i. On a slow Pune track, KKR with Narine, Shakib, Abdulla and Yusuf should be able to defend any total above 150. Now, they've scored 162! With Sehwag & Warner not finding this track to their liking, KKR's winning chances are better at 55%.
j. KKR have a 60% chance of beating Mumbai in the finals at Chennai. While Mumbai has had success at that ground (against Chennai in IPL5 & in the Champions League last year), Kolkata's spin quartet plus Bhatia and Shukla in the bowling stakes and Gambhir & Kallis in the batting front would play a BIG role.
TO SUM UP, Kolkata has the BEST CHANCE of lifting the cup this year (since their team is excellently suited to Chennai's slow track), followed by Delhi who, by qualifying at #1 get a second chance. Chennai (excellent spin options + home advantage) are third, with Mumbai last.
That said, if CHENNAI gets their toughest match (against MI at Bengaluru) out of the way with a win tomorrow, a probability of their win increases dramatically from 18.2% to 45.5%, and if they beat Delhi in the 2nd match, their chances increase to 65% against Kolkata at at Chennai.
I fervently hope and pray that the dominos fall Chennai's way.
Still whistling, raising my hands and cheering Chennai on!
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