If I keep sticking my neck out like this, it will become as elongated as a giraffe!
Anyways, here it goes for today's match, and CSK's chances of making it a hat-trick of IPL titles:1. My estimate of CSK's chances of beating Delhi Daredevils in today's match is 65%. (See Rationale A below)2. If Chennai do beat the daredevils from the national capital today, chances of them beating Kolkata in the final on the 27th is 60%. (See Rationale B below)
3. Therefore, combined probability of CSK winning the IPL title three times in a row = 0.65 x 0.60 = 0.39, or 39%.That does not make KKR's chances 61%!
If Chennai makes it today, KKR's chances of beating Chennai at the home ground of the roaring Lions would only be 40%.Thus, right now, KKR has a 1% edge over CSK for a tournament win.
However, if CSK win today, their chances go to 60% versus 40% for KKR.Go Chennai! Give us more joy today!
Rationale A (CSK's 65% chances at Chennai today)a. DD's batting is still top-heavy, and not very suited for the slow Chennai track (unless the track changes character suddenly a la Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde).b. DD's bowling attack is also highly pace oriented, with Morne Morkel, Umesh Yada & Varun Aaron supported by Irfan Pathan. Sehwag stuck to this attack against Kolkata and paid the price. While he may not make the same mistake again, their spin department is not as strong as Chennai.c. Chennai's bowling attack is far more suited to their home pitch, though they have not mastered it this season. While a leg-spinner is lacking, Ashwin, supported by Raina as off-spinners and Jakati, supported by Jadeja as as left-arm spinners can really "turn" the pressure on.
Anyways, here it goes for today's match, and CSK's chances of making it a hat-trick of IPL titles:1. My estimate of CSK's chances of beating Delhi Daredevils in today's match is 65%. (See Rationale A below)2. If Chennai do beat the daredevils from the national capital today, chances of them beating Kolkata in the final on the 27th is 60%. (See Rationale B below)3. Therefore, combined probability of CSK winning the IPL title three times in a row = 0.65 x 0.60 = 0.39, or 39%.That does not make KKR's chances 61%!
If Chennai makes it today, KKR's chances of beating Chennai at the home ground of the roaring Lions would only be 40%.Thus, right now, KKR has a 1% edge over CSK for a tournament win.
However, if CSK win today, their chances go to 60% versus 40% for KKR.Go Chennai! Give us more joy today!
Rationale A (CSK's 65% chances at Chennai today)a. DD's batting is still top-heavy, and not very suited for the slow Chennai track (unless the track changes character suddenly a la Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde).b. DD's bowling attack is also highly pace oriented, with Morne Morkel, Umesh Yada & Varun Aaron supported by Irfan Pathan. Sehwag stuck to this attack against Kolkata and paid the price. While he may not make the same mistake again, their spin department is not as strong as Chennai.c. Chennai's bowling attack is far more suited to their home pitch, though they have not mastered it this season. While a leg-spinner is lacking, Ashwin, supported by Raina as off-spinners and Jakati, supported by Jadeja as as left-arm spinners can really "turn" the pressure on.
d. The home team's batsmen are peaking at the right time, with Hussey and Badri in the team adding stability to a line-up of aggressive stroke players. Captain Cool's blazing form in the last match is a great sign.
e. CSK are great at dealing with pressure, thereby giving their fans pleasure! Especially in the play-offs, they are masters of mastering pressure. The fact that they restricted Delhi to 114 in the previous match here would certainly give them psychological advantage.
f. Chennai's performance in the play-offs has been truly intimidating to opponents. This cannot be brushed off.
g. As if the roaring lions don't have enough support already, there will be over 12,500 more fans seated for this match. Imagine the adrenaline rush Chennai will receive with so many more full-throated fans all whistling for the home team, acting as a truly strong 12th player against 11.
All this said, Sehwag and Warner, both big match players, are sheer dynamite who can blast the opposition in a matter of a few overs. The KEY batsman for Delhi will be Mahela Jayawardene. He will absolutely relish the Chennai surface, using his quicksilver footwork and use of the crease to possible dent the dominance of the Chennai tweakers.
If Dhoni's men can get the dynamic Delhi opening duo and Jayawardene fairly cheaply, they will have a better than 65% chance of getting through to the finals!
Rationale B (CSK's 60% chances against KKR) if they win todaya. KKR will obviously be much tougher opposition in the finals -- they have a terrific bowling attack suited to the Chennai track (Narine, Abdulla, Shakib, Yusuf & Balaji, not to mention, Kallis and Rajat Bhatia).b. KKR's batting line-up starting with brave captain Gambhir and Kallis, is also far better suited to face Chennai's spinners.
c. KKR are VERY HUNGRY for victory, but this could go against them in a high-pressure match which an IPL final certainly is. Chennai's proven capability in soaking up pressure will be a big advantage.
d. As detailed in Rationale A, Chennai's bowling and batting still have an edge over KKR on their home ground. They know the pitch far better. If they reach the finals, they would already have played nine matches on this ground this year, compared to KKR's one.
e. The home crowd will be out with FULL SUPPORT for the roaring lions, and this can be quite intimidating for the opposition.
f. Chennai's record in the IPL so far, especially in the play-offs, is also very intimidating to KKR.
e. CSK are great at dealing with pressure, thereby giving their fans pleasure! Especially in the play-offs, they are masters of mastering pressure. The fact that they restricted Delhi to 114 in the previous match here would certainly give them psychological advantage.
f. Chennai's performance in the play-offs has been truly intimidating to opponents. This cannot be brushed off.
g. As if the roaring lions don't have enough support already, there will be over 12,500 more fans seated for this match. Imagine the adrenaline rush Chennai will receive with so many more full-throated fans all whistling for the home team, acting as a truly strong 12th player against 11.
All this said, Sehwag and Warner, both big match players, are sheer dynamite who can blast the opposition in a matter of a few overs. The KEY batsman for Delhi will be Mahela Jayawardene. He will absolutely relish the Chennai surface, using his quicksilver footwork and use of the crease to possible dent the dominance of the Chennai tweakers.
If Dhoni's men can get the dynamic Delhi opening duo and Jayawardene fairly cheaply, they will have a better than 65% chance of getting through to the finals!
Rationale B (CSK's 60% chances against KKR) if they win todaya. KKR will obviously be much tougher opposition in the finals -- they have a terrific bowling attack suited to the Chennai track (Narine, Abdulla, Shakib, Yusuf & Balaji, not to mention, Kallis and Rajat Bhatia).b. KKR's batting line-up starting with brave captain Gambhir and Kallis, is also far better suited to face Chennai's spinners.
c. KKR are VERY HUNGRY for victory, but this could go against them in a high-pressure match which an IPL final certainly is. Chennai's proven capability in soaking up pressure will be a big advantage.
d. As detailed in Rationale A, Chennai's bowling and batting still have an edge over KKR on their home ground. They know the pitch far better. If they reach the finals, they would already have played nine matches on this ground this year, compared to KKR's one.
e. The home crowd will be out with FULL SUPPORT for the roaring lions, and this can be quite intimidating for the opposition.
f. Chennai's record in the IPL so far, especially in the play-offs, is also very intimidating to KKR.
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